Much speculation - and mirth - surrounded the run-up to the announcement of this year's Nobel Peace Prize, with the Norwegian Nobel Committee naming Venezuelan human rights activist and Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, instead of another public figure who had been openly hankering for it, the winner. The choice of Machado, too, came under flak, with some pointing out her recent support for Israel and approval of Donald Trump - she 'dedicated' her Nobel to him.

But these controversies became sidenotes when two Norwegian newspapers reported unusual movement in the online betting markets ahead of Friday's announcement of the Prize. In particular, bets for Machado spiked on Polymarket, a decentralised 'prediction platform' (read: gambling site), 11 hours before her name was announced. As the news of the 'leak' spread, it didn't feel like a triumph of collective intelligence, but more like a crack in the foundation of institutional trust. On Saturday, head of Nobel Institute Kristian Berg Harpviken said, 'It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.'

Have prediction markets become so sophisticated that they can penetrate even the most closely guarded secrets?